China electric power development report: the power supply and demand situation in the next three yea
On June 18, the general institute of electric power planning and design held the press conference of China electric power development report 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the "report") in Beijing.At the meeting, du zhongming, vice President of the general institute of electric power planning, made an outlook on the development of electric power in the next three years, and conducted a preliminary study on the future development of China's electric power industry. The details are as follows:
Research on electric power development in the next three years
In the next three years, new and high technology industries and high-end manufacturing will continue to drive the steady growth of electricity consumption for the second generation, while the rapid development of the service sector will drive the growth of electricity consumption for the third generation and household consumption.
In 2019, China's electricity consumption grew by 5.6% year on year, reaching 7.3 trillion kilowatt-hours.In 2020, China's electricity consumption will increase by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching 7.6 trillion kilowatt-hours.In 2021, China's electricity consumption increased by 4.7 percent year on year, and reached 8.0 trillion kilowatt-hours.
Second, the national power supply and demand situation is tightening
Under the premise of full transmission of the inter-provincial transmission channels that have been clearly defined at present, if the supply of power is not considered in time, the power supply and demand situation of most provinces and regions in China will become increasingly tight in the next three years.Among them, 16 provinces need to increase the power supply and start the preliminary work of a number of thermal power projects in time.East, central and southern regions need to further expand the scale of external electricity.
According to the report, the country's electricity supply and demand will tighten across the board from 2019 to 2021.Considering only the power supply that can be put into production at present and on the premise that the arrangement of power flow across provinces can be implemented, the supply and demand of electricity in hebei, jiangsu, zhejiang, anhui, henan, hubei, hunan, jiangxi, shaanxi, guangdong, guangxi and hainan will remain tight or tight in the next three years.
Power supply and demand in liaoning, Inner Mongolia, shandong, Shanghai, fujian, sichuan, chongqing, gansu, xinjiang, yunnan and guizhou will gradually change from loose or basically balanced to tight or tight in the next three years.Power supply and demand in heilongjiang, jilin, Beijing, tianjin, shanxi, ningxia, qinghai and Tibet are relatively loose.
Third, vigorously developing new energy is still the focus of energy supply side reform
Absorption and utilization of new energy will be the key to optimize the layout of development.In the next three years, there will be about 350 million kilowatts of new energy consumption and absorption space in China, and there is still great potential for development in the three north areas, with about 100 million kilowatts of new energy consumption and absorption space.
With the continuous rapid growth of electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia, gansu, xinjiang and other regions, the red and orange alert is expected to be lifted in the next three years, and there is still potential for large-scale development according to the requirements of affordable Internet access.
With the introduction of the policy of "renewable energy power absorption responsibility weight" (" quota system "), the urgency of new energy development in the central and eastern regions continues to increase.With the introduction of "market transaction of distributed power generation" policy, it is expected that distributed wind power and distributed photovoltaic will develop rapidly in the eastern region in the next three years.
Under the current peak regulation capacity and network framework, the capacity of offshore wind power consumption in the next three years will be about 19 million kilowatts.
Fourth, southwest hydropower transmission scale continues to increase
Southwest hydropower will also add more than 30 million kilowatts of allocation capacity across provinces and regions. It is suggested to establish a market-oriented mechanism and gradually adjust the consumption plan of the existing hydropower.
V. inter-provincial transmission channel utilization needs to be improved urgently
We will accelerate the construction of supporting power sources for transmission channels from ningdong to zhejiang, from zhundong to anhui, from Shanghai miao to shandong, from north shanxi to jiangsu, from west Mongolia to south tianjin, from yuheng to weifang, and from ximeng to shandong.
Strengthen the construction of receiving end network, improve the power transmission capacity of the transmission channels from jiuquan to hunan and hami to zhengzhou;We will quickly improve the market-based pricing mechanism and increase the scale of the zarut - qingzhou transmission channel as soon as possible.
It is expected that the scale of inter-provincial power transmission will reach about 290 million kilowatts in 2021
Sixth, the market reform needs to further accelerate and expand
The trade barriers of electricity marketization still exist, so it is urgent to establish the inter-provincial trade mechanism based on the physical connection of power grid and break down the trade barriers between provinces and regions.
The top-level design of the spot market has been introduced, but the electric power spot trading system still needs to be further improved, and the electric power spot trading simulation verification system needs to be established urgently.
A preliminary evaluation mechanism for incremental distribution networks has been established, and the formulation of relevant planning and design standards has begun.However, currently only 48 business licenses have been issued for 320 incremental distribution network projects, and the main position of a large number of incremental distribution network businesses needs to be clarified.
Preliminary study and judgment of future electric power development trend
First, high-quality economic development has injected new drivers into the growth of electricity consumption
At the present stage, China's economy is in the middle and late stage of industrialization and rapid urbanization.However, the per capita electricity consumption and other indicators are still far from the medium-developed countries. In 2018, the per capita electricity consumption of China was about 4,900 KWH, only three fifths of the current level of Japan and two fifths of the United States.
Looking forward to 2035, China's high-quality economic development, especially the innovative development of the manufacturing industry, the rapid development of strategic emerging industries such as big data, the continuous improvement of people's lives, and the replacement of electric energy, such as electric cars and clean heating, will inject new momentum into the growth of electricity consumption.It is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 12 trillion KWH in 2035, and the per capita electricity consumption will be about 8,500 KWH, slightly higher than the current level of developed European countries and Japan.
Ii. New energy development has entered a new stage dominated by consumption and consumption
With the gradual withdrawal of state financial subsidies and the beginning of the 14th five-year plan, China's new energy will enter a new stage of comprehensive unsubsidized parity development dominated by consumption.
It is estimated that by 2035, the total installed capacity of new energy will reach about 1.2 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 32 percent of the total installed capacity and about 15 percent of the electricity generation.
3. Modern energy system endows traditional power sources with new positioning
Traditional power supply has always been the "ballast" to support the safe and stable operation of China's power system. In the future, it will continue to play the basic role of power support and strengthen the bottom guarantee of energy and power security supply.
Hydropower should optimize the layout of large and medium-sized hydropower development and strictly control the development of small and medium-sized hydropower stations in accordance with the principle of "joint efforts for major protection and no large-scale development".We will comprehensively promote clean development of coal and power generation, further reduce emissions, improve peaking capacity, replace coal and power biomass fuels in areas where conditions permit, and explore the use of carbon capture and storage technologies.
Iv. Profound changes in the energy pattern have given birth to a new pattern of power resource allocation
In accordance with the principle of respecting history and marketization, it is necessary to gradually optimize and adjust the existing external transmission power flow of the three gorges, guizhou, anhui and east, and plan the connection scheme of the external transmission of hydropower in sichuan and yunnan in advance.
The comprehensive energy base in the north dominated by new energy and the hydropower base in the southeast of Tibet in the southwest still have potential.The central and eastern regions are affected by ecological and environmental protection, energy "dual control" and other policy factors, and the power market space is huge.
On this basis, the future will gradually form a stable transmission of power from west to east and increase the distribution of power resources from north to south.It is expected that the scale of electricity flow will reach about 400 million kilowatts in 2035.
V. energy transformation to make the power grid a new platform for the sharing economy
It is difficult to completely change the short-term dependence on the power supply path of economic development, and the large power grid relying on large power supply will still play an irreplaceable role as the backbone platform.
With the acceleration of energy transformation, new industries, new forms of business and new models will keep emerging, and the distribution network will become an important foundation platform for the sharing economy in the future.(source: China energy news)